My Current Electoral College Predictions (It's never too early to have some fun)

These are my opinions of the way things are currently looking for the Electoral College. I know the Election is almost five months away, but as the Political Junkie that I am, I can't help but already start to formulate possibilities. These will most likely change slightly on a weekly basis, but for a while now I've noticed not much of a change in my overall thoughts concerning the EC.

Safe States Obama: ME, VT, MA, CT, RI, DE, NY, NJ, MD, IL, MN, HI, WA, OR, CA, and DC (200 EV)

Safe States McCain: WV, KY, TN, SC, GA, AL, MS, LA, AR, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, MT, WY, ID, UT, AZ, AK (163 EV)

Swing States: NH, PA, OH, VA, NC, FL, MI, IN, WI, IA, MO, CO, NM, NV (175 EV)

I have seen different places label NJ a swing state, but not IN. My reasons for considering them as I do is that IN has polled extremely close (closer than Florida, for example, which is considered a swing state). Obama has even been ahead in a couple of polls. It is geographically near some other very strong Obama states. Historically, maybe it's not a swing state. But I fully consider it one at this time. NJ has consistently polled for Obama, and quite far ahead. I don't think it's a disputed state at all.

Here's how (based on current trends) I think it'll go:

McCain Swing States Won: FL, NC, IN, NH and NV (58 EV).
Obama Swing States Won: PA, VA, OH, MI, WI, IA, MO, CO, and NM (117 EV).

Final tally:
McCain: 225 EV
Obama: 313 EV


The thing is, I'm tempted to put NH and NC in Obama's column, and perhaps giving MO to McCain. But here, even if MO did go to McCain, Obama would still win. MI is another one I'm getting more unsure about, but again, even putting that in McCain's column leaves Obama with a decent-sized win.

Obama still squeaks by with a win if you subtract CO and NM (which I think will definitely go Obama). Things get ugly by subtracting (at this point) VA and/or OH.

As (I believe) has been pointed out, if Obama wins all the states Kerry did, and then IA, CO and NM, he wins the election with 273 EV.

If anyone wants to know why I put a SPECIFIC state in the column I did, I can explain it, But I don't feel like giving an in-depth explanation without being prompted to do so first, as going over every state would just be painful in its length.

Anyone interested in analyzing and making their own EC Maps should see here.



One thing I will add the following, as it was a response to someone's comment concerning the States Kerry won in 2004 as they relate to Obama's EC Map.

There are only two states Kerry won that I think Obama will have any trouble with: Michigan and New Hampshire.

In my explanation above, I gave NH to McCain, but that could very well change. The state has been more left-leaning in recent years thanks in no small part, I think, to the influence of us here in VT. I reluctantly gave it to McCain because he seems to be popular there. Of course, recent trends dictate that Obama is doing better there than expected, so... That could change.

MI is a real toss-up. Obama's been doing better than McCain there, but not by much. Geographically Obama has the advantage. But it's really so close that it's hard for me to tell. I'm mostly going on the most recent Rasmussen polling, putting Obama ahead by a few points. Considering the fact that people said he would have trouble because of the primary debacle, if he's polling ahead at all right now it means he's in a very good position.